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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd